Opinion Polls

I've spent a good chunk of the evening scanning through opinion polls and referendum results to see if I could find any patterns that might predict the result of Thursday's poll. I finally agree with Declan Ganley on something. The opinion polls do have to be taken with a grain of salt! The only (TNSmrbi Irish Times) opinion poll which reflected an actual referendum result. was the last opinion poll during the second Nice Treaty referendum. And this is only true when you eliminate the undecideds. The latter poll predicted a result of 42% - 29%. When you eliminate the undecideds, this becomes 59% - 41%, not that far from the actual result which was 62.9% - 37.1%.

Anyway, the really noticeable result from my short search was the limitation of the no vote to less than six hundred thousand voters. Which leads me to my conclusion: if the turnout reaches forty five percent, the yes vote should win. Otherwise things look a bit dodgy. I’ll have to wait to see if I’m proved right, or wrong, on the day.