Another look at the figures

Blog in haste, repent at leisure. Here's what I wanted to say yesterday, put in a better

When viewed in terms of percentages of the electorate rather than in terms of valid poll, the normal narrative of a falling yes vote changes. The biggest no vote was for Amsterdam, the only referendum when over 20% of the electorate voted no. The lowest yes vote, other than the first Nice referendum (15.8%), was the Single European Act (30.7%). And while the referendum for joining the EEC did achieve the highest yes vote (40.6%), The second highest was for Maastricht (39.4%).

Based on the historic results, a 45% turnout next Thursday would make it difficult for the no side to win. If the result is a no, on that turnout or higher, it would represent a sea-change in Irish opinion on the EU, with a large number of people who have never voted no in a EU referendum before, doing so.

Needless to say, it's for the people to decide and I, obviously, stand to be corrected.

(I got the figures from here, and changed the percentages to reflect the electorate, rather than valid poll.)